The 2026 MLB trade deadline is Monday, August 3 at 6 p.m. ET. Records tell you who should buy and sell. NUT tells you what records can't: which contenders are actually as good as their standing, which sellers are quietly holding valuable pieces, and which targets produce rather than just carry a name.

NUT (Net Unbiased Total) measures runs above average from what a player controls, with fielding stripped out. Below, every buyer and seller is read through that lens — and the gaps between NUT and the standings are where the interesting deadline moves live.

The Locked Buyers

Five teams are at or near 100% playoff odds: the Dodgers (+9.2 NUT), Brewers (+9.3), Yankees (+6.8), Braves (+3.6), and Rays(+2.7). The NUT board mostly agrees they belong — Milwaukee and Los Angeles own the two highest team NUTs in baseball, built on opposite engines (the Brewers on a +4.3 rotation, the Dodgers on a +7.4 offense). The Yankees are the balanced one: +2.2 hitting, +4.5 pitching. These teams are shopping for depth, not identity.

The Bubble — Where NUT and the Standings Disagree

This is where the deadline is decided. A few contenders are running ahead of or behind their production:

Cubs — 93% odds, −0.8 team NUT

Chicagois all but into October, yet their team NUT is negative — dragged down by a −6.3 pitching NUT, the worst rotation mark in baseball. The bats (+5.5 hitting NUT) are carrying them. No contender needs an arm more, which is exactly why the Cubs turn up on the shortlist for every available starter.

Pirates — 3rd-best NUT in MLB, but 39% odds

The Pirateshave the third-highest team NUT in the sport (+8.9, on a +7.9 offense) while sitting at 54–52 and outside the playoff picture. That gap is the deadline's hardest call: NUT says this roster is better than its record and worth adding to; the standings say sell. Whichever way they lean, their production says the pieces are real.

Red Sox — 86% odds, −1.0 team NUT

Bostonis winning without hitting: a −2.8 hitting NUT is the third-worst among likely contenders. If the Red Sox buy, the need is offense, not another arm.

Nationals — elite bats, no arms

Washingtonowns a +6.5 hitting NUT but a −4.4 rotation, and sits at 44% odds. That fork — sell the bats or buy the arms — is why two of their best hitters are the most-discussed names on the market (more below).

Sellers with the Best Assets

Out of the race doesn't mean out of value. Ranked by what they can actually offer:

The Blue Jays (1% odds) still carry a +4.1 pitching NUT — the most attractive arms on the sell side. The Rockies are 42–65 but somehow post a +4.6 hitting NUT, the definition of sell-high bats. The Marlins (+3.1 hitting) and Giants are moving everything not nailed down. Deeper sellers — the Royals (−5.4), Angels, Mets, and Reds— are selling need, not surplus.

Top Trade Targets by NUT

The names in the rumor mill, with the number that matters attached. Season NUT, defense removed:

Buyer beware: Sandy Alcantara(MIA) is in every rumor on reputation, but his −0.2 NUT and 4.01 ERA say the production hasn't come back this year. Name value and NUT value aren't the same thing — which is the entire point of checking.

Track Every Move Live

When the deals hit, every trade, call-up, and DFA lands on the Transactions tracker in real time — each name carrying its season NUT, so you can judge the return the moment it's official. Weighing a fantasy deal off the back of it? The Trade Analyzer compares rest-of-season NUT on both sides.

For the full rules, the postseason-eligibility bar, and how the date moved off July 31, see MLB Trade Deadline 2026: Date, Rules & How to Track Every Move.