MLB Bounce-Back Candidates 2027: Judge, Raleigh, 18 More by NUT
The top MLB bounce-back candidates for 2027 by NUT are Aaron Judge, who fell from +8.4 SEASON NUT in 2025 to +1.3 in 2026 against an expected NUT of +1.9, and Cal Raleigh, who fell from +4.6 to -0.8 against an expected -0.2. Below are the 10 hitters and 10 pitchers with the biggest 2025-to-2026 drops whose expected NUT says they should have done better. As of November 13, 2026.
NUT is one number for production against league average, built on the advanced hitting and pitching stats analysts trust, not batting average or ERA. Defense is left out. Expected NUT is the NUT a player's quality of contact, strikeouts and walks would normally produce, with batted-ball luck taken out.
The 10 Hitter Bounce-Back Candidates for 2027
Judge's drop of 7.1 is the largest among the 321 hitters who qualified in both seasons; his 2026 covered 283 plate appearances in 66 games around a stint on the 60-day injured list. Raleigh's 5.4 is the second largest. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jarren Duran have the widest gaps on the list: expected NUT 1.3 above the real number for each.
Shohei Ohtani's line is his hitting only. His +3.9 expected NUT is the highest of all 20 players here, and Ketel Marte went from +3.1 to +0.4 with an expected +1.5.
The 10 Pitcher Bounce-Back Candidates for 2027
Paul Skenes is the only pitcher here whose 2026 expected NUT (+2.1) grades A. Jeffrey Springs has the widest gap of the 10: -3.0 real against -1.0 expected. Eric Lauer is next at 1.2.
Five of the 20 are free agents: TJ Friedl, Eric Lauer, Jeffrey Springs, Bryan Abreu and Jameson Taillon. Where the rest of the market ranks: top MLB free agents ranked by NUT.
Big 2026 Drops That Expected NUT Backs Up
These five fell as far as the names above, but their expected NUT sat at or below the real number, so their contact quality fell with them. They miss the list.
How the Bounce-Back List Was Built
Every player had to qualify for the SEASON NUT leaderboard in both 2025 and 2026. Each list is the 10 biggest drops among players whose 2026 expected NUT ran at least 0.3 above their real 2026 NUT. Teams are each player's last 2026 club.
The same gap works in reverse for players who ran above their expected numbers: 3 signs a player is overperforming. For the batting-average version, see 2026's biggest expected-stat gaps. Every club's 2026 total is in the 2027 power rankings by NUT, and live boards are on Stats →
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Quick Answers
Who are the best MLB bounce-back candidates for 2027?
By NUT, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh lead the hitters: Judge fell from +8.4 SEASON NUT in 2025 to +1.3 in 2026, Raleigh from +4.6 to -0.8, and both had a higher expected NUT. Paul Skenes (+3.8 to +1.7, expected +2.1) is the top name among pitchers.
Will Aaron Judge bounce back in 2027?
His 2026 expected NUT was +1.9, above his real +1.3, over 283 plate appearances in 66 games around an injured-list stint. His 2025 was +8.4 SEASON NUT, an S.
Will Cal Raleigh bounce back in 2027?
Raleigh went from +4.6 SEASON NUT in 2025 to -0.8 in 2026, the second-biggest drop among 321 qualified hitters. His expected NUT was -0.2, so his contact quality also fell, but less than his results.
What is a bounce-back candidate in fantasy baseball?
A player coming off a down year who is likely to recover. This list uses two tests: a big drop in SEASON NUT from 2025 to 2026, and an expected NUT at least 0.3 above the real 2026 number.
Is Paul Skenes a bounce-back candidate for 2027?
Yes by this test. Skenes fell from +3.8 SEASON NUT in 2025 to +1.7 in 2026, and his 2026 expected NUT was +2.1, an A grade.