Hard-hit rate is the percentage of batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. It’s a broader measure than barrel rate — barrels require a specific launch angle, while hard-hit rate only cares about how hard the ball was hit.

League-average hard-hit rate is around 37%. The best hitters in baseball consistently reach 50%+, meaning half or more of the balls they put in play are crushed. Hard-hit rate is predictive of future batting average and slugging because hard contact creates more hits and more extra-base hits over time.

Hard-hit rate is useful as a quick filter. If a hitter has a low batting average but a high hard-hit rate, they’re making quality contact that isn’t finding holes yet — positive regression is likely. If a hitter has a high average but low hard-hit rate, they’re relying on soft contact finding holes, which is usually unsustainable.

What is a good HardHit%?

Hard-hit rate correlates strongly with xwOBA and therefore xNUT. Hitters who consistently hit the ball 95+ mph produce better expected outcomes regardless of where those balls land.

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